Wednesday, February 11, 2009

What drives the market?

The pundits, the press and the talking trash cans on wall street, the TV stations and the financial news stations are all selling something or someone. Consider their motives to be saying something, instead of working at a discussion about solutions.

They unanimously gave the Secretary of the Treasury credit for the market fall yesterday. Woohee! To be so powerful. They were ALL wrong. That is they were incorrect. They said things that were not true. They lied. I know, what I just wrote is politically incorrect, but we are for 'change' - right? So let's start telling the truth. Painful isn't always the final result of truth, it goes away as the truth sets you free.

Yesterday the market fell further before Geitner spoke than it did during and after he spoke.
So YOU decide what caused the fall. Do not let those other guys tell you. You can figure it out every day. It only takes a watch, note pad, addition and subtraction and a few minutes to gather the daily chart of the market indexes. Note the index level at the minute, and then weigh the 'news' they are reporting, you may see that the market is driven by fear, greed and emotion. In my opinion, the last is the most important piece. They each play a part and need each other to show shifts in market value.

Treasury Secretary, Timothy Geitner, does not appear to have that charismatic presence we like in our public speakers, however, he had a message to deliver that seemed unclear. Maybe next time he will have something to say that is based on information. Yesterday the message appeared to be an attempt to say something was being done to discover the key to unlocking this economic challenge. It seemed to be a message directed at appeasing the impatient needs of American citizens to see some positive results of their voting. (Do you realize President Obama has only been President for 22 days?)
Geitner's message would have maybe been better for all of our expectations to have said: "We are just not clear about this. We have so much to do. The solution may involve some black swans. I will be vague and unclear because today the keys are still in the haystack."

I would encourage everyone to consider that at 10 billion dollars a day, we could come clean of the deficit we are driving our economy into. That is: at near 10,000,000,000 dollars a day in positive sales of goods, our country would still not overcome the debt of 1,000,000,000,000 dollars we are piling up as debt.

Have a nice day, the cab fare is still only measured in dollars and cents. Just go buy a cup of coffee for a homeless American. The need may be for you to buy it for me very soon.

Back to the opening question:
So what drives the market? We do as investors and savers. Protect yourself. See if you can 'not spend' something on a geegaw today, as it may become a cup of soup tomorrow. If you are young, continue to save in a retirement treasury bill, and if you are old, start being good to your offspring.
Have a smart day. Do not believe everything 'they' say.
I am going to go read Susie Orman. She has a new book: "2009 Action Plan" while I await my next cab fare.
CABBY

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